There’s No Such Thing As An iPhone Killer (And There Doesn’t Need To Be)
Last week, the Nexus One was announced. The newest Android phone, this one was given to developers and spawned a legion of rumors that Google was set to “revolutionize” the market. They said Google would give the phone away, or offer it without a contract for $200 (or free), or that it would use Google Voice to bypass the carriers completely. I think some of these rumors are things that Google would eventually like to do, but not in ways that we see them now. And not any time soon. Ultimately, most of these rumors fell on their face. Others, we’re still waiting on.
But there’s one that came up that keeps coming up. Every time a new Android phone comes out (as well as the Pre):
It’s going to be an iPhone-killer.
Now, a disclaimer: I am an Android fan. I bought a G1 a few months after it came out and have been with Android since 1.1. I have seen it grow into a stable, usable, and with the coming of 2.1, pretty dang beautiful platform. I love my G1. And I will say, with no hesitation, there will be no “iPhone killer”. Not the Droid, not the Nexus One, not any Android phone. For a few reasons:
Apple Has Mindshare
Simply put, Apple has an incredible fan following. If that sounds like a dig, then you really need to come to terms with your identity as a fanboy. And it’s ok. For the rest of us, it’s actually a testament to the success of Apple’s branding. You see, Apple isn’t a tech company. They’re a religion. Steve Jobs isn’t a CEO, he’s a rock star. And Apple product releases aren’t announcements, they’re concerts. Because Apple knows how to make their products exciting, thrilling, and moreso than anything else, they know how to make their products feel elite.
And for good reason. I like my G1, but the iPhone is a powerful phone. More powerful than mine. And it shook up the mindset of people to believe that maybe their phones could do more. Way more. Buying an iPhone is not a bad decision.
If Apple tried to make such a fuss over their product and didn’t have the goods to deliver, they’d end up looking like….well, like most other companies that hold extravagant events with stages and lasers releasing mediocre products. Apple has the goods and knows exactly how to make you want them. Apple has had an incredibly slow year, what with Snow Leopard introducing mostly invisible updates, and the iPhone 3.0 software consisting primarily of “It’s about time!” new features like MMS and copy and paste. Despite this fact, and flying in the face of Android’s super-accelerated climb, Apple maintains a luxury position in the mindshare of users. This is largely due to marketing and creating an environment of anticipation and excitement among their loyal fans (and to be fair, those fans are loyal for good reason). This is not something Google or any other company is going to break or duplicate any time soon.
An iPhone Killer Is Unnecessary (And Unhelpful)
In the smartphone market right now you have the iPhone, Android, the Palm Pre/Pixi, Symbian, Maemo, Windows Mobile, and Samsung’s upcoming Bada OS. The competition here is fierce, the market is diverse, and there is no sign of this calming down any time soon. Not to mention that smartphones are still a relatively small part of the market. Worldwide, smartphones are (according to analysts) set to reach 37% of all cellphones by 2014. Yes. Two thousand fourteen. Here in the U.S., smartphone marketshare only reached 23% of all handsets sold at the end of the fourth quarter of 2008. While that number is likely higher now, it’s safe to say that there is a huge part of the population that has yet to even consider a smartphone. And while many may never, the field is still ripe for harvesting. Simply put, there is no need to displace the iPhone. There are still plenty of people who don’t have a smartphone. Plenty enough for both camps.
The real issue at hand is whether it will ever be said that anything besides the iPhone is acceptable. Up until recently, you either had an iPhone or you had….something else. Windows Mobile is a comparitively terrible platform. Personally, I’m not sure how Blackberries count as smartphones aside from their email capabilities. And the Palm Pre, while a powerful phone, is simply too closed off. Android (and more to the point, the recent Droid) is the first major competitor. With the backing of a company like Google, Android is solid enough and supported enough to really make waves.
It’s unnecessary to destroy the iPhone. But if Android can convince people that other phones can be just as capable, then suddenly that market gets cracked wide open. Buying a smartphone becomes less about getting an iPhone and more about picking the phone that’s right for you. That’s when competition really heats up. A couple months ago, Apple’s COO said ” people are still just trying to catch up with the first iPhone 2 years ago.” While a little trash talky, this almost implies that Apple is unconcerned with making major advances with their phone. If there’s no challenger, then why does it matter? Android has mostly failed to issue a challenge that’s substantial enough to warrant Apple’s attention. That is, until the Droid. 2010 will likely be the year that we really see things get fierce. And that competition is vastly more important than killing the iPhone. In fact, it almost requires that the iPhone stay in the game.
Strength Through Numbers
In the U.S., Blackberries still hold a significant marketshare, even if their mindshare isn’t that great. Why? Because there are numerous Blackberry phones on each carrier. Blackberry Bold, Blackberry Storm, Blackberry Pearl, Blackberry Curve….the list goes on. You can get a Blackberry without worrying about switching carriers or ETFs like you would with an iPhone (or a Pre). It is a simple hardware upgrade instead of a major carrier switch. Of course, the fact that Blackberries are well-established and common in the business world doesn’t hurt. Still, the barrier to entry is very low.
As of right now, Android has handsets (plural) available on three of the four major carriers (T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint), with one or two rumored to be coming to AT&T by the middle of next year. The options are out there for most people. More than that, there is diversity in the handsets. Want a physical keyboard? Most carriers have one with one of those. Prefer something that’s a little prettier than the standard Android interface? HTC has the Sense interface, and the X10 (one of the rumored AT&T phones) has the positively gorgeous Rachael interface. Options, options, options. Cheap, expensive, basic, beautiful. It’s all there.
And none of them will be iPhone-killing hits. Even the Droid, with it’s major push by Verizon and incredibly capable 2.0 software will not displace the iPhone. The number of units sold by the Droid has often been compared to the Palm Pre which also failed to displace the iPhone. The difference, though, is that the Droid is not the only Android handset. And what’s good for one phone is good for them all.
Not to mention that if there are dozens of Android handsets (and there will be literally plural dozens), why put all your marketing strength behind one handset? There will be flagship Android sets, no doubt. The Droid is one, I think the Nexus One has the potential to be another. But outside the mainstream buzz, there will still be multiple handsets on every major carrier to choose from. No single handset needs to “kill” the iPhone. Android can push ahead by spreading out and diversifying, letting phones like the Droid and the Nexus One take the lead, leaving the Heroes, Erises, and MyTouch3G’s to flesh out their ranks.
In Software, Ubiquity is King
None of the other stuff matters, though, unless the platform can become a household name. When it comes to a software platform, you want ubiquity. You want it everywhere, well-known, well-supported. Java, the cross-platform software wouldn’t mean squat unless all platforms supported it. The iPhone enjoys a large App Store because iPhones (and iPod Touches) are everywhere. If there weren’t literally millions of users out there, the platform wouldn’t be nearly as attractive for app developers (which is part of the Pre’s problem), nor would it enjoy as much brand recognition.
And brand recognition is the prize of ubiquity. People buy Coke not because it tastes better, but because they know it better than Sam’s Choice Cola. And, as Pepsi demonstrates, ubiquity is not a prize that only one can have.
Simply put, more units sold means more developers, more ideas, more innovation. What Google needs to do to make Android successful is get their phones and their platform into as many hands, both consumers and developers, as possible. One option is to make one really killer phone and put all your marketing behind that one phone on one network. Another option is to make a bunch of killer phones for as many networks as you can and divide your marketing among them. Both can still get your name in front of a bunch of people.
But most importantly of all:
We’ve Been Down This Road Before
The year was 1984. Apple computers released the very first Macintosh. This computer was revolutionary in one very astounding way above all the others: you could use a mouse to manipulate overlapping windowed applications. At the time, this was legendary. This was stuff of the future. Who could’ve possible imagined that a box that displays text was capable of doing so much more? Truly, Apple was here to revolutionize the computing industry.
Microsoft released Windows 1.0 in November 1985, nearly two years after the release of the Mac, which was released in January of the previous year. Windows 1.0 was not wildly successful. Nor was Windows 2.0 which was released in October of ‘87. It wasn’t until May of 1990, a full six and a half years after the first Mac was introduced that Windows 3.0 was released and became a booming success and…well, as they say. The rest is history.
I doubt Android will spread as quickly as Windows did. It’s possible, but unlikely. And this is an entirely different market. But the principles stay the same. Tech changes fast. Just a few years ago, the RAZR was the most popular luxury phone. And in fact, it’s still an incredibly popular phone. For some reason. It won’t take much to change the entire cell phone industry. Apple has done a fantastic job of shaking things up on the hardware and software front. There’s some who believe Google may be making efforts to change things on the carrier front. I think in five to ten years the cell phone market will look almost nothing like it does now. And while Apple will be one of the key innovators, it won’t be an Apple World. They simply don’t have the flexibility and freedom of licenses to become anything more than a luxury status phone.
The Short Version (Too Late)
Apple has a hot product on their hands. And they’ve enjoyed a lot of well-earned success for it. And like they did in the 90s, they will survive no matter what the tech industry throws their way. No one will kill Apple, no one will kill the iPhone. There will come a time, I think, when the iPhone is not “the only phone worth buying”. In fact, it has already begun. 2010 will see that idea become common. The Droid is one killer Android phone. The Nexus One is another. And there will be more (like the near-legendary Xperia X10). There’s not going to be a shortage of great Android phones. And any good phone will sell.
But for all the fanboys of any platform, be it Android, WebOS, WinMo, or Symbian: the iPhone’s not going anywhere. And that’s ok.



